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Thoughts on the Economy Amid Covid-19 and Protests: Will we reopen?

Before you read anything I’ve written below, check out these organizations, donate what you can, and understand their mission: Reclaim the Block: https://www.reclaimtheblock.org/home/#about Sanctuary Covenant Church: https://sanctuarycov.org/ Black Lives Matter: https://blacklivesmatter.com/ Equal Justice Initiative: https://eji.org/ Two things can be simultaneously true. Truth can be carried by duality. I can love my daughter and be disappointed in her behavior. Those two truths do not cancel each other out. You can have a different experience than someone else that you can’t relate with. Institutions we love could also be perpetrators of mass injustice. Rioting can cause destruction but can also bring about massive change. We can be upset that businesses were destroyed and still focus on the message behind Breonna Taylor and George Floyd: not one more black man should die at the hands of police, not one more black woman should be shot in her own home. We mus...
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Thoughts on the Economy Amid Covid-19: Do We Reopen?

Plastered across the news are varying opinions on “reopening” the economy. It is the click bait of this moment. The United States is unique and will recover, just know it will not happen overnight. The steps we did not take earlier to combat the virus caused us to be in this position of uncertainty. While I refuse to say “we must open” or “we must stay in lockdown,” I will say that we are not ready for either, but the consequences felt will be drastically different depending on the route taken. Here are some quick takes: 1) Opening is nuanced, and not every business is prepared to reopen 2) Entire sectors of our economy may not recover 3) Even tech companies have hurt during this pandemic 4) Covid-19 is still a real threat, with no easy answers There are no easy answers “Reopening the economy” is too general of a notion. The phrase does not encompass the work necessary to rectify the complicated situation we are in. I personally view both the “reopen” camp and “ke...
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Thoughts on the Economy amid Covid-19: Quick Hits

April has truly been a confusing month, and many things seem to be out of place. Though there is a light at the end of this tunnel, we need to understand the worst of this downturn is yet to come. The reality is still the same: 1) There is no cohesive strategy to combat this virus.  The US Government has not responded adequately or responsibly. 2) The virus and death count are still going up at a relatively fast pace. We are not testing enough to understand the path of the virus.   3) The stimulus package, as predicted, is not enough.    4) Unemployment applications top 22 million. This spike has overwhelmed state offices with applications for unemployment. Many questions remain. What Now The economy is shrinking. Unemployment is rising. The American workforce is roughly 165 million people, and over 22 million have applied for unemployment benefits. The unemployment rate is rising at a pace never seen before. Based off surveys, unemployment is c...
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Thoughts on the Economy amid Covid-19: Short Response on the past week

This week probably was confusing. We registered record highs in the stock market, saw a decrease in the bond market yields, and certain alternative funds made billions of dollars this week. The government passed a stimulus plan. The Federal Reserve bought more bonds, loosened regulations on banks’ ability to lend, and increased bond and equity purchases. This week did not seem as dire as the week before. Here is what we still know: 1)    The US Government is still not responding at the same rate the virus is spreading and is instead playing politics. There are conflicting messages with what is going on with the virus. Some governors have kept their states “open,” and some have issued orders for businesses to close and people to stay home. There is no clarity yet on how the stimulus will work, nor a rush to get the money out. 2)    There has been a rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths. It took 27 days to have the death toll rise to 1,000 i...
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Thoughts on the Economy Amid COVID-19

Please note: the following are my own beliefs and thoughts. They are not attributed to any employer, organization, or person. They are my own. The global economy is in limbo, and that trickles down to you and me. Experts are in agreement that we are still only at the beginning of an ugly downturn. Just over 30 days ago, we were at market highs with a tight labor market and just two weeks ago, record unemployment. As of this writing, we are 30% below market high, have 281,000 unemployment claims that were made in the last five days alone (a 33% increase from the prior week), and simply an unclear outlook. In my opinion, the turbulence of the stock, bond, and alternative markets can be attributed to three things: 1)    We are not prepared to face this pandemic. This is an apolitical reality. 2)    We do not understand enough about this virus. 3)    We are not sure what the long-term damage is to local, national, and global economies. Conn...
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